Republicans Started A Culture War, But Democrats Might Be Winning It
The first big general election of the 2024 cycle is over, but the battle over abortion rights continues. It carried Wisconsin’s newly-elected justice, Janet Protasiewicz, to victory over Dan Kelly, just like it gave Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, and Democrats around the country, the advantage a few months prior. As a voting issue, it has shown no signs of receding. And along with abortion, Republican cartoonish overreach on issues like drag shows and book bans comprise a multi-front “culture war” that Democrats might actually be winning.
Abortion In Wisconsin
This was no surprise to anyone listening to voters in Wisconsin, as we did in multiple rounds of tracking and focus groups with the research consortium Badger State Research. Voters found Kelly’s long anti-abortion history horrifying and disqualifying, and freely shared with us their own past challenges with infertility, assault, or past abortions early in their lives. In every survey we did, “shares your views on abortion” was the image trait on which Protasiewicz had the largest advantage over Kelly.
You can tell anti-abortion activists also know their “victory” 50 years in the making is deeply unpopular — because they’re barely talking about it. In Wisconsin, Kelly did not defend the state’s current total abortion ban that dates back to 1849, nor talk about his past work for Wisconsin Right To Life. He also deleted a blog post from just a few years ago critiquing abortion supporters for trying “to preserve sexual libertinism.” (Kelly didn’t just oppose abortion, but sexual freedom itself.)
Kelly wasn’t the only one trying to bury own anti-abortion views. Before the primary, when Kelly faced another conservative judge, the Wisconsin Right To Life’s website explained their Kelly endorsement as for a candidate who “pledged to champion pro-life values.” After the primary, the organization scrubbed the phrase “pro-life” for something vaguer.
In paid communication, most of Kelly and his allies’ focused on crime, not abortion. Even Susan B. Anthony — the anti-abortion political group — did more of its advertising on crime than abortion. Despite his years of anti-abortion work, and support from anti-abortion organizations, on Election Night, Kelly didn’t make an impassioned, principled plea against abortion, but a sneering, sour grapes swipe at his opponent.
Beyond Abortion: LGBTQ Rights & Book Bans
As with the effort to roll back abortion rights, the Republican effort to turn back the clock on LGBTQ rights is not winning new converts. To stamp out LGBTQ acceptance means asking people to turn against their brothers, sisters, or children. In recent years, far more than in my past 25 years of moderating focus groups, voters openly share they have gay brothers, sisters, parents, or children, and so have no patience for judgmental or hateful political rhetoric. This didn’t help Dan Kelly in Wisconsin, as he opposed gay marriage, and fought against basic health insurance rights for gay couples.
Beyond the State Supreme Court race, Republican efforts to squash out what they call “grooming” wherever they see it invariably leads to ridiculous efforts to ban Kermit the Frog or Dolly Parton singing about rainbows, and internet outrage over a Bud Light can. Being the party against Dolly Parton and Bud Light seems unlikely to build consensus or reach swing voters.
And around the country, voters are also rejecting public school book bans and topic bans. In our recent national polling for Navigator, “banning books that some parents find to have questionable content” and “banning high school classes like AP African-American history” were the least popular education proposals we tested, with majorities in opposition. Our post-election work for the National Education Association also showed few midterm voters outside the Republican base were motivated by these right-wing attacks.
Which Is The “Moral” Party?
Every campaign is different, of course. A debate over abortion may not be a part of every winning Democrat’s strategy. And Republican lawmakers have been alarmingly successful in passing anti-trans legislation in many state chambers. But the conventional wisdom that Democrats are weak on “social issues” is woefully outdated. After the 2004 election, national exit polls showed voters who said their top issue was “moral values” overwhelmingly voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry. Back then people assumed, correctly or not, that “moral values” meant things like gay marriage, abortion, and guns, all Democratic vulnerabilities at the time. Now, not only are Democrats stronger on these issues, we can reframe “moral values.” It is “moral” to be kind, accepting, reasonable, and not mean-spirited. Voters in Wisconsin and elsewhere have gotten the message, even if Republican politicians still haven’t.
